How do you pick the best stocks in Singapore?
An interesting way might be to learn from what’s working.
Below, you can see a list of the best performing stocks over the past 5 years, ranked by their absolute price change by percentage.
You might think that in a boring market like Singapore, there is little opportunity for growth. But here’s an interesting statistic for you.
We studied the best performing stocks in Singapore over the past 5 years, and found that out of the 15, only 1, Sembcorp Industries could be classified as large cap.
What was even more interesting was that out of the 15 stocks, if you look at their business segments, only 3 could really be classified as ‘Technology’ stocks.
It looks like here in Singapore, boring is good.
Why this might be interesting
We got interested in studying what drove returns in Singapore, after we realised that the biggest drivers of growth in our portfolio didn’t come from the big and fancy names that we held, but the ones that were seemingly, well…
Boring.
Stocks like Multi-Chem, which sold and implemented cybersecurity software.
Or stocks like Propnex, the real-estate brokerage.
When we first picked these stocks, we thought we were picking wrong.
Can high, go higher?
After all, they looked like they were at all-time highs.
Take for example Propnex, the stock we bought in December 2020.
Whilst the metrics were strong, what we realised was scary, was that its stock price had reached an all time high of $0.74.
It looked like it couldn’t go much higher.
Or could it?
It did.
Adjusted for its share split in July 2022, over the past five years, it has returned 229%.
But you might think,
John, that’s just one example.
Sure, another stock we own.
Multi-Chem.
When we got in at $1.67, it looked toppish.
But since then, it’s gone onto greater returns, hitting $2.30.
That’s a 37.7% growth, not including dividend growth.
Don’t even ask me about the dividends they are giving. It’s simply ridiculous.
If you really want to know, it’s 8.69% based on the current share price.
But beyond just momentum, are there other factors that drive growth?
Quality of management
Let’s go back to Multi-Chem.
Multi-Chem initially started making printed circuit boards.
But they quickly moved into selling and implementing cybersecurity software in 2002, after realising that their business could be massacred by the Chinese companies who could do it much better and cheaper.
Personally, when I saw this, I saw CEO Foo Suan Sai, and COO Ms Han Juat Hoon’s incredible ability to be hard-nosed about realities.
By the way, both of them happen to be husband and wife too.
They faced reality, and made the change into a business they weren’t entirely familiar with.
And since then, their company has grown leaps, and bounds.
But you might question if the family run company can really outperform the market, given that there might be calls of nepotism.
The family run company ensures long-termism
During 2023’s Annual General Meeting of The Hour Glass, a luxury watch retailer, CEO Michael Tay answered queries around why the company was buying back so much shares, and whether it planned to privatise the company.
I’m paraphrasing what he said, as no recordings were allowed of the meeting.
But I think it’s vital.
Look, whilst we are a family run company, being publicly listed gives us the right governance processes.
Whilst some family run companies have been profiled in recent times for being run poorly, The Hour Glass has made sure that there are proper governance processes to prevent a repeat of the conflict between former husband and wife team in Dr Henry Tay and Janine, who eventually divorced.
He ended the AGM with these words.
My aim is to ensure the long-term survivability of The Hour Glass.
Even though the company crossed a billion dollars in market cap in 2023, Michael’s words reflected his humility.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that all family run companies are great.
But I’m saying that some family run companies, have the ability to think longer-term, because of the holding and staying power of their management.
Their wealth is inherently tied up in the fortunes of the company.
Long-term, patient capital
Let’s just take a more mainstream example.
UOB, the only Singaporean bank that’s still run by family.
It would look like their returns have been the worst, over the past 5 years.
When I was on their Q4 Earnings Call in February 2024, UOB CEO Wee Ee Cheong mentioned this.
We have taken a view, and thus positioned ourselves accordingly.
There’s something very wise in that statement.
Their action, is not simply reactionary. But they have the time to observe the market, and then respond accordingly.
They take a view, and they respond.
It sounds simple, but it’s not.
Look at how DBS has jumped on every new tech bandwagon, and ended up having 5 outages in 2023, alone.
UOB’s patience means that it’s able to look at where the market is, and position itself accordingly, rather than putting itself on a race to the bottom.
Just look at UOB’s offer of wealth management, credit and debit cards, and you would see, that they consistently offer the best fixed deposit rates, the best cashback rates on debit cards, and often the highest customer satisfaction.
Yes, this does cost the bank.
But it does mean that the short-term pains, eventually grow into long-term gains.
And sometimes, this ability to take a long-term vision, and turn it into reality, can only happen at founder-led companies.
Founder led companies
As a founder myself, I can tell you that no matter how much you pay someone else, their interests will never align with yours.
And that’s why we see over and over again that the small cap companies, that tended to outperform still tended to have its founder at the helm.
Whether it be in the CEO or the Chairman position, the founder still played an outsized contribution in determining the returns of the stock.
One visionary founder we’ve really enjoyed seeing is Ismail Gafoor, the CEO of Propnex. When I went for its 2023 AGM, I was impressed to see how he thought about the inherent differentiator of Propnex.
You would think that with so many property agencies around, there might not be much difference.
But he pointed out how there was a culture in Propnex of strong camaraderie, no doubt forged by Ismail’s own experience in the Singapore army, where he first started his career.
One anecdote?
When they organise boot camps for the new property agents that join Propnex, these 3 day 2 night camps run overnight.
There is no pay for helping out at this boot camp.
But there’s a queue of agents who want to help.
A queue.
Can you imagine the kind of camaraderie for unpaid work, and how that might translate into real world results?
How do you pick the right founders?
Start by reading their annual reports and their letters.
The better those letters sound, the more alert you should be as to the quality of the management.
Just look at The Hour Glass’ Chairman Henry Tay’s letters for what we think is the gold standard for Annual Reports.
Investing is never an easy job, but at the end of the day,
investing is a people’s business.
You need to trust the people who run the business you buy the equity of.
If you don’t, you should get out.
Fast.